Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
