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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It often serves as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or just the most shocking upset.

But this year's race is distinctly unique. The pool of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners falling away and longtime also-rans ascending collectively. Under an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun year, he's facing five other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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